Prediction of UT1–UTC,LOD and AAM χ<Subscript>3</Subscript> by combination of least-squares and multivariate stochastic methods     

Tomasz Niedzielski  Wiesław Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》2008,82(2):83-92

This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ ₃). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ ₃ time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ ₃ data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ ₃ predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ ₃ time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ ₃ reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR.  相似文献   

SOME NEW UNDERSTANDINGS OF LAND-SURFACE PROCESSES IN ARID AREA FROM THE HEIFE^*          下载免费PDF全文

Hu Yinqiao  Gao Youxi 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》1996,10(2):233-246

The survey for the HEIFE(Atmosphere-Land Surface Processes Experiment at Heihe River Basin,Western China) is given in the paper.The following basic subjects for land-surface processes in arid areas are studied:(1) the general characteristics of the energy budget on ground surface in arid areas;(2) the parameterization of the land surface processes;(3) the interaction between oasis and its desert circumstances,a special phenomenon in arid areas.The analysis shows that the sensible heat flux in the surface energy budget is in the majority,and the latent heat flux may be neglected.The influence of atmospheric stratification stability on the turbulent transfer of energy and substance must be considered in parameterization of land surface processes in arid areas.The "cold island effect" phenomenon in oasis and the "humidity inversion" phenomenon in desert near oasis are the result of the interaction between them.The results would improve the understanding of land surface processes in arid areas.  相似文献   

Seasonal variation of atmospheric dimethylsulfide at Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean     

B. C. Nguyen  N. Mihalopoulos  S. Belviso 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》1990,11(1-2):123-141

Daily measurements of atmospheric concentrations of dimethylsulfide (DMS) were carried out for two years in a marine site at remote area: the Amsterdam Island (37°50S–77°31E) located in the southern Indian Ocean. DMS concentrations were also measured in seawater. A seasonal variation is observed for both DMS in the atmosphere and in the sea-surface. The monthly averages of DMS concentrations in the surface coastal seawater and in the atmosphere ranged, respectively, from 0.3 to 2.0 nmol l^-1 and from 1.4 to 11.3 nmol m^-3 (34 to 274 pptv), with the highest values in summer. The monthly variation of sea-to-air flux of DMS from the southern Indian Ocean ranges from 0.7 to 4.4 mol m^-2 d^-1. A factor of 2.3 is observed between summer and winter with mean DMS fluxes of 3.0 and 1.3 mol m^-2 d^-1, respectively.  相似文献   

Carbon, sulfur and O₂ across the Permian–Triassic boundary     

Robert A. Berner   《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》2006,88(1-3):416

A model for the carbon and sulfur cycles across the Permian–Triassic boundary has been constructed from carbon and sulfur isotopic data. Results indicate a drop in global organic matter burial, the formation of an anoxic deep ocean, and a large drop in atmospheric oxygen over the time span 270 to 240 Ma. Much of these changes were probably due to a drop in terrestrial productivity and preservation and an increase in global aridity.  相似文献   

Rodent paleofaunas as indicators of climatic change in Europe during the last 125,000 years     

Manuel Hernández Fernández 《Quaternary Research》2006,65(2):308-323

This paper presents a quantitative reconstruction of the European late Pleistocene paleoclimate based on 72 rodent assemblages of five sequences from France, Germany and Bulgaria, covering the last interglacial-glacial cycle. They show a pattern of severe changes in temperature, with reduced precipitation during the coldest periods. A tentative correlation between the isotopic and palynological records and the paleotemperature changes is shown. These changes are consistent with variations in atmospheric circulation patterns in response to an expanding-retracting Fennoscandian ice-sheet. They can be attributed to the enhancement-weakening of the Scandinavian-Polar anticyclone and its associated dry winds, the south-north shifting of the North Atlantic Polar Front, and the varying supply of moist air from the Atlantic. Qualitative paleoenvironmental analysis shows broadleaved-deciduous forests in France and Bulgaria during most of the studied period. Taiga and tundra appeared in eastern France during the lower Würm. The German sequence indicates the presence of coniferous forests. These results are broadly consistent with other paleobiological records (mammalian, avian and insect faunas, isotopic record in dental tissue, palynology). The main discrepancies with the paleoclimate inferred from the palynological record are found during the coldest periods and are probably due to the interaction between vegetation, climate, and atmospheric CO₂ levels.  相似文献   

非加温型四连栋塑料温室内外温湿度关系研究   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：7  

李军  杨秋珍  吴元中 《气象》2005,31(8):22-24

根据1999年12月～2002年8月典型天气（晴天、多云、阴天）下非加温型四连栋塑料温室中间1．5m高度气温、相对湿度的观测数据，应用逐步回归分析方法建立了冬季、春秋季、夏季典型天气下温室内日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均相对湿度与气象站气象要素间的关系式，为温室蔬菜品种筛选、蔬菜标准化栽培、无公害蔬菜生产和病虫害防治提供小气候方面的技术数据。  相似文献   

淮河流域土壤湿度异常的时空分布特征及其与气候异常关系的初步研究   总被引：29，自引：5，他引：29       下载免费PDF全文

孙丞虎李维京  张祖强何金海 《应用气象学报》2005,16(2):129-138

利用中国东部1990~2000年旬平均土壤湿度、降水和气温观测资料，通过对0~50 cm层次土壤湿度进行旋转主分量分析 (REOF)，重点分析了淮河流域土壤湿度的时空分布特征, 并初步研究了土壤湿度与前期、同期和后期不同时段降水与气温的关系。发现春季以30 cm为界，30 cm以上各层土壤湿度异常的第一旋转空间模态十分相似, 其大值中心主要位于淮河流域，而30 cm以下 (30~50 cm) 各层的第二旋转空间模态与之亦十分类似, 因此称该模态为“淮河型”，而夏季和秋季虽然该模态也很显著, 但特征不如春季突出。该模态在各层次土壤中具有明显的持续性特征，均存在40旬左右的显著周期；并与前期和同期降水（气温）呈显著正 (负) 相关关系，与约半年后的降水 (气温) 呈负 (正) 相关关系。  相似文献   

大气边界层湍流温度序列的信息熵分析   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

汪景烨  付遵涛  张霖  刘式达 《高原气象》2005,24(1):38-42

利用大气边界层内近地面的大气湍流温度时间序列，运用功率谱分析、信息熵分析等方法，分析了大气边界层内近地面的大气湍流特点，并对稳定层和不稳定层的大气湍流进行了对比。结果表明，信息熵和功率谱指数是区别稳定层结和不稳定层结大气边界层湍流特征的指标，对造成两者之间的差别做出了对应的解释。  相似文献   

论江西省大气成分观测与服务系统建设     

江西省大气成分观测与服务系统研究项目组 《气象与减灾研究》2005,28(3):9-16

在介绍国内外大气成分观测与研究进展的基础上，对建设江西省大气成分观测与服务系统的必要性和可行性进行了科学的分析，并从系统建设的原则、目标、内容、技术路线、监测方案，以及系统研究的主要内容和提供的产品等方面，对拟建的江西省大气成分观测与服务系统进行了全面的阐述。研究结果认为，随着江西经济建设的快速发展，建设江西省大气成分观测与服务系统，有利于了解和掌握江西大气物质成分分布特征及变化情况；有利于提高江西天气气候预报预测准确率，提升江西气象公共服务的能力和水平；可为预防大气化学灾害和控制区域大气环境质量，提供科学的决策依据，具有显著的社会、经济效益和生态效益。  相似文献   

相对湿度对气溶胶辐射特性和辐射强迫的影响   总被引：14，自引：4，他引：14  

张立盛  石广玉 《气象学报》2002,60(2):230-337

采用已有的气溶胶折射指数等资料 ,计算了在不同的相对湿度条件下硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射特性。结合两种不同化学输送模式 (CTM )的模拟结果及LASGGOALS/AGCM模式 ,模拟估算了考虑相对湿度影响后全球硫酸盐气溶胶的辐射强迫。结果表明 :(1)随着相对湿度的增加 ,硫酸盐气溶胶的质量消光效率因子在短波波段有所减小 ,单次散射反照率仅在长波波段有所增加 ,不对称因子在整个波段均有所增加 ;(2 )用两个CTM资料模拟辐射强迫的结果相差较大 ,其全球平均辐射强迫分别为 - 0 .2 6 8和 - 0 .816W/m2 ;(3)在考虑相对湿度的影响后 ,硫酸盐气溶胶辐射强迫的分布类型与相应干粒子的强迫分布类型基本相同 ,但全球平均的强迫值减少了 6 %左右。  相似文献